Flagler Fishing

The strongest fully covered 2-hour daylight/twilight window sets the relative bite label: Promising at 0.78+, Mixed at 0.62–0.77, otherwise Slow. These are heuristic score bands, not measured chances of catching a fish. No local catch/no-catch data calibrates them.

Every 30-minute slot uses the NWS hourly forecast. Surf / pier weights sunrise or sunset light 45%, wind 30%, rain chance 25%. Inshore weights Smith Creek water-level change 35%, light 25%, wind 20%, rain 20%. Water-level change is interpolated between predicted highs and lows; it is not a tidal-current prediction. Windows need complete inputs, can include 45 minutes of twilight, and never overlap. Skip-level forecast wind or rain and active caution/warning alerts withhold suggestions. Offshore buoy 41117 is a current St. Augustine reference, not a forecast of local surf; check the beach before going.

Confidence compares input quality, not catch odds: Low if the forecast is over 6 h old, alerts are unverified or inshore tide predictions are missing, or if two or more inputs are missing or aging (forecast 3–6 h old, offshore reading missing or over 90 min old, no airport observation); Moderate with one such gap; otherwise High. A Low reading dims the outlook label.

Seasonal targets follow FWC’s St. Johns / Flagler fishing guide. They do not predict species catches or indicate legal harvest. Smith Creek is an inland tide reference and is used only for the inshore view.